Release Replay · Polymarket · Thu Oct 29, 2026 · 8:30 Eastern Time (ET)

Release Replay: Growth & Inflation Data

21 Polymarket order books, recorded about once a second around the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) release of third-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and September core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, Month over Month (MoM) and Year over Year (YoY).

The order book in three dimensions (3D)

Time runs left to right, price front to back. Column height = shares posted at that price (log scale). Drag to orbit, pinch or scroll to zoom. It follows the outcome picked in the chart below.

Loading the 3D order book…

Bid levels (top 5)
Ask levels (top 5)
Trades (public trade history)
8:30:00 release plane
No book snapshots (gap)

Before and after the release

How to read it: line = midpoint price, band = spread, circles = trades. Left is before 8:30, right is after.

Before: 08:15–08:30 ET

Books recorded from 08:20:00 ET

08:15–08:30 · 15 minutes

After: 08:30–08:43 ET

Split time axis: the first minute second by second, then the next 12 minutes squeezed

08:30:00–08:31:00 · first minute, expanded

08:31–08:43 · compressed

Midpoint
Bid–ask range
Trade, Yes share (size = shares)
Trade, No share
Price history (about 1 per minute)
Gap: no book snapshots
8:30:00 release

Shaded = gaps. Our snapshots paused 3 times after 8:30. Circles there are trades from Polymarket's public trade history, not book states.

Details

Release clock, second by second

Trades inside the 3 snapshot gaps

The books inside the gaps cannot be recovered; Polymarket does not publish past book states. These are trades only.

All outcomes in each event

One outcome up close: bid, ask, size and spread

Cents per $1 share

Size at best price

Shares posted at the best bid and best ask

Spread

Best ask minus best bid (blank when a side was empty)

Before vs. after numbers for the selected outcome

All 21 outcomes: before and after

Last book before 08:30:00 vs. last recorded book. "Settled" = midpoint stayed within 2¢ of its final level from then on.

Data notes and limits

Method, sources and glossary

From 08:20 ET, a script requested all 21 public order books once a second. It saved the top five levels per side whenever a book changed.
It also checked BEA's release pages and logged when they changed.
Trades come from Polymarket's public trade history; minute-level price history covers 08:15–08:20.
Every number is computed in your browser from the recorded data. No forecasts.

Sources: Polymarket's Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) /books, data-api /trades, prices-history; bea.gov. No private accounts or keys. Download the data.

Share: Each outcome trades as a "Yes" share that pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if not. A price of 61¢ means the share last had bids and asks around 61¢.
Best bid / best ask: The highest price anyone had posted to pay for a Yes share, and the lowest price anyone had posted to part with one, at that moment.
Midpoint: Halfway between the best bid and best ask. A common shorthand for where a market is priced.
Spread: Best ask minus best bid. A wide spread means fewer people were quoting close to each other.
Size at best price: How many shares were resting at the best bid or best ask.
BEA, GDP, PCE: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes Gross Domestic Product (GDP, how fast the economy grew) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE, household spending used to track inflation), usually at 8:30 ET.
Core, MoM, YoY: Core PCE leaves out food and energy prices. Month over Month (MoM) compares with the previous month; Year over Year (YoY) with the same month a year earlier.
Order book, snapshot: The list of prices and share amounts people have posted for an outcome. A snapshot is one copy of it taken by our recorder, about once a second.
Trade history, block time: Polymarket's public list of executed trades. Block time is when a trade was recorded on Polygon, the public blockchain Polymarket settles on, in whole seconds.